Global Temperature October 2017

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through October 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through September 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for October 2017 is based on final daily averages for October 1-15 and preliminary daily averages for October 16-31. The UM CCI October estimate was up by 0.16C from September while the WxBELL estimate was up by 0.11C.  Most likely the UM CCI October estimate will drop by about 0.05C once final daily averages for October 16-31 are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through September 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 November 5

Final October 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from UAH, RSS, and ERAI adj have been added to the graph, and the UM adj estimate has been revised based on final daily estimates for the entire month of October.  The revised UM adj estimate for October now shows an increase of 0.11C from September.

Advertisements

Global Temperature September 2017

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through September 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through August 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for September 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released. The UM CCI September estimate showed a small rise from August while the WxBELL estimate showed a small drop.  Most likely the UM CCI September estimate will show a small drop similar to WxBELL once final daily averages for September are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through August 2017 except CRUT4 which is final through July 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Global Temperature August 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through August 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed small increases from July to August in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June and July 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for August 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through July 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 September 6

Final August 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from UAH, RSS, and ERAI adj have been added to the graph.

Global Temperature July 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through July 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below, along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  All three of these estimates showed small increases from June to July in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimate for June 2017 is based on final daily averages and the estimate for July 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through June 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 August 7

Final July 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from RSS and ERAI adj have been added to the graph and the UM CCI July estimate has been updated based on final daily estimates.

 

Global Temperature June 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through June 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below. The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference. Both of these estimates decreased from May to June in 2017. The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimate for June 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus may change slightly when the final monthly estimate is released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through May 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest standard climatological reference period 1981-2010 to provide a consistent baseline.

Update 2017 July 5

Final June 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from UAH, RSS, and ERAI adj have been added to the graph and the UM CCI June estimate has been updated based on final daily estimates.

Global Temperature May 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through May 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed small increases from April to May in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August 2016 through January 2017 are based on final daily averages and for February and May 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary monthly estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through April 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 June 6

Final May 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates for UAH, RSS, and ERAI adj have been added to the graph, as well as final February through May UM CCI estimates.

 

Global Temperature April 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through April 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed large decreases from March to April in 2017 while the UAH estimate showed a small increase.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August 2016 through January 2017 are based on final daily averages and for February through April 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary monthly estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from eight other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature (CRUT), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through March 2017, except for CRUT which is final through February 2017.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

The graph above shows that the various global temperature estimates converged in early 2016 and then diverged considerably later in 2016 and have remained divergent in early 2017.  The convergence seems to be associated with the strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2016.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the remainder of 2017.

Update 2017 May 6

Final April 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates for RSS and ERAI adj have been added to the graph, as well as the final March 2017 estimate for CRUT.