Global Temperature March 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through March 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed small increases from February to March in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August 2016 through January 2017 are based on final daily averages and for February and March 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary monthly estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through February 2017, except for CRUT4 which is final through January 2017.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

The graph above shows that the various global temperature estimates converged in early 2016 and then diverged considerably later in 2016 and have remained divergent in early 2017.  The convergence seems to be associated with the strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2016.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the remainder of 2017.

Update 2017 March 4

Final March 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates for UAH, RSS, and ERAIadj have been added to the graph, as well as the final February 2017 estimate for CRUT4.

Global Temperature 2017 February Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through February 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed increases from January to February in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August 2016 through January 2017 are based on final daily averages and for February 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary monthly estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

figure-1-global-temp-anom-2014-2017-feb-prel

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through January 2017, except for CRUT4 which is final through December 2016.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

The graph above shows that the various global temperature estimates converged in early 2016 and then diverged considerably later in 2016 and have remained divergent in early 2017.  The convergence seems to be associated with the strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2016.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the remainder of 2017.

Global Temperature 2017 January Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through January 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (CFSRadj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  All three of these estimates showed slight increases from December to January.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August through December 2016 are based on final daily averages and for January 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

figure-1-global-temp-anom-2014-2017-jan

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from six other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAIadj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through December 2016.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

The graph above shows that the various global temperature estimates converged in early 2016 and then diverged considerably later in 2016.  The convergence seems to be associated with the strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2016.  It will be interesting to see what happens in 2017.

See the Monthly Trends page and the Daily Update page for the latest graphs of the latest monthly and daily trends for the UM CCI CFSR estimates (access from the menu at the top of this page).

Update 2017 February 6

Final January 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates for WxBELL, RSS, and ERAIadj have been added to the graph.

Update 2017 February 9

The graph has been updated to show the UM CCI January 2017 monthly estimate based on final daily estimates for January released today.

GOES-16 Preview

The first next generation US Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) was recently launched by the US National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) on November 19th of 2016, designated as GOES-R.  This new series of satellites will provide 34 meteorological, solar and space weather products.  They orbit above a fixed point at the earth’s equator at a distance of about 22,300 miles out in space.   As with all US meteorological satellites, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has taken over operation of the satellite and designated it GOES-16.  Below is a link to a visible composite color high resolution full-disk test image from midday January 15th of 2017 provided by NOAA.  To see the image in full resolution, click on the reduced image below which will take you to NOAA’s web site to view the full resolution image (use scroll bars or browser magnification tool to navigate) and you can return here by using your browser back button.

Additional test images can be seen here:
GOES-16 Image Gallery

Here is an animation showing the 16 different imagery channels available:

Below is a description of the satellite and its uses.

In May 2017, NOAA will announce the new location for GOES-16.  It will replace either GOES-East or GOES-West and will become operational in November 2017.  The next satellite in the series, GOES-S, is scheduled for launch in spring 2018 and should be operational by a year later.

Information about data access can be found here:
GOES-R User Systems

NASA also has a useful web page for viewing real-time and archived high resolution imagery from three polar orbiting satellites here:
NASA Worldview

2016 Precipitable Water Animation

I ran into this animation on the interwebs.  It’s a great visualization of atmospheric water vapor in the atmosphere and how it moves from the tropics to the poles.  Water in its various forms, including oceans, lakes, water vapor, clouds, rain, snow, ice, and glaciers, is a major player in weather and thus climate.  It is perhaps the most dominant player besides incoming solar radiation which is the main driver of the weather-climate heat engine.

Keep in mind that this animation does not show liquid water, as in clouds and fog, which are also very important in the weather-climate energy budget.  The air typically has very low water vapor content in the polar regions, allowing other greenhouse gases to have more of an effect than where water vapor is much more abundant, as in the tropics.  However, because of the very cold polar temperatures, clouds, fog, and precipitation still occur there, which somewhat limits the effect of other greenhouse gases in the polar regions.

The Earth web site where this video originated is also a great visualization tool for looking at current, past, and forecast weather conditions, as well as some ocean conditions.  Click on the link below for an example showing the current wind flow and temperature.

earth

When you visit the above link, click on the “earth” label in the bottom left corner to pop up a menu with many options to select.  Also, the J and K keys will step the selected display forward or backward one time step (3 hours).  The weather data displayed is from the Global Forecast System (GFS).  Be sure to give the globe a spin by clicking and dragging.  If you have a mouse, use the mouse roller bar to zoom in and out.

Global Temperature December 2016 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through December 2016 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (CFSRadj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  All three of these estimates showed decreases from November to December.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August through December are based on final daily averages and may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

figure-1-global-temp-anom-2014-2016-dec-prev

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from six other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim (ERAI), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through November 2016.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

See the Monthly Trends page and the Daily Update page for the latest graphs of the latest monthly and daily trends for the UM CCI CFSR estimates (access from the menu at the top of this page).

CFSR Adjustment

As discussed in the previous post, Weather Model Reanalysis Comparisons, the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) shows a shift in global temperature anomaly estimates apparently associated with the switch from Version 1 to Version 2 (CFSV2) that occurred in early 2011.  The version upgrade shift is apparent when the CFSR estimates are compared with the older and unmodified  NCEP reanalysis performed in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR R1), as can be seen in Figure 1 (click on any of the graph images below to see a larger copy).

Figure 1. Comparison of NCEP/NCAR R1 and NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for 1979-2015.

Figure 1. Comparison of NCEP/NCAR R1 and NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for 1979-2015.

A linear regression of the NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 versus the NCEP/NCAR R1 for the period of discrepancy that runs from 1979 through April 2010 shows a good correlation with R-square of 0.83, as seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Scatter plot and linear regression of NCEP/NCAR R1 versus NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 for 1979 through April 2010.

Figure 2. Scatter plot and linear regression of NCEP/NCAR R1 versus NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 for 1979 through April 2010.

The resulting slope of 0.865 and intercept of -0.2 was applied to the NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the regression period.  Estimates for May 2010 through November 2016 were not adjusted since they compared well with the NCEP/NCAR R1 estimates during that period.  The adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 estimates are compared to the NCEP/NCAR R1 estimates in Figure 3 (click to enlarge), and show a good agreement.  If only it were so easy to adjust all the CFSR parameters to match.

Figure 3. Comparison of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for NCEP/NCAR R1 and adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 for 1979-2016.

Figure 3. Comparison of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for NCEP/NCAR R1 and adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 for 1979-2016.

The adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 estimates also compare well with the recently adjusted European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim (ERAI) as can be seen in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Comparison of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for NCEP adjusted CFSR/CFSV2 and adjusted ERAI for 1979-2016.

Figure 4. Comparison of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for NCEP adjusted CFSR/CFSV2 and adjusted ERAI for 1979-2016.

Figure 5 shows a closeup view of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the 21st Century so far, including those from NCEP/NCAR R1, NCEP CFSR/CFSV2, and ERAI.  Note the reference period was shifted to 1981-2010.

Figure 5. Comparison of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the 20th Century so far.

Figure 5. Comparison of monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the 20th Century so far.

It is interesting that the adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 shows little trend for the 20th Century portion of the period covered as can be seen in Figure 6, despite rapidly rising global atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during this time.

Figure 6. Adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 trend for 1979-2000.

Figure 6. Adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 trend for 1979-2000.

For most of the 21st Century so far, there also has been little rise in global temperature as indicated in Figure 7, with the exception of the large high spike associated with the 2016 El Niño event at the end of this most recent period.

Figure 7. Adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 trend for 2001-2016.

Figure 7. Adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 trend for 2001-2016.

The adjusted NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 trend for 1979 through 2015 is +0.00130 degrees Celsius (C) per month, or equivalent to +1.56C per 100 years if it were to continue that long, as compared to +1.52C/100 years for NCEP/NCAR R1 and +1.67C/100 years for ERAI projected from the same period.  The next year or two should be very telling as to whether global temperature returns the the level before the El Niño or steps up to a higher trend.  A flat or higher trend would definitely be more preferential than the beginning of a decline into the next glacial period.

Here’s hoping everyone has a great new year!