Global Temperature January 2018

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through January 2018 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through December 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for January 2018 is based on preliminary daily averages.  Most likely the UM CCI January estimate will drop by about 0.10C once final daily averages for January are released. The UM CCI January preliminary estimate at +0.36C was down by 0.04C from December while the WxBELL estimate at +0.26C was down by 0.13C and the UAH estimate also at +0.26C was down by 0.15C. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from six other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature (CRUT), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through December 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2018 February 6

Final January 2018 global temperature anomaly estimates from RSS for lower troposphere and ERAI adj for surface have been added to the graph.   Both showed decreases from December 2017 to January 2018, with RSS down 0.04C,  and ERAI adj down 0.14C.

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Global Temperature December 2017

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through December 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through October 2017 are based on final daily estimates and the November and December estimates are based on preliminary daily estimates. The UM CCI December estimate was up by 0.06C from November while the WxBELL estimate was up by 0.09C.  Most likely the UM CCI November estimate will drop by about 0.08C and December estimate will drop by about 0.05C once final daily estimates for November and December are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through November 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2018 January 4

Final December 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from UAH and RSS for lower troposphere and ERAI adj for surface have been added to the graph.   All three showed small increases from November to December 2017, with UAH up 0.05C, RSS up 0.04C, and ERAI adj up 0.09C.  Also, the UM adj estimates for November and December 2017 have been revised based on final daily CFSR estimates from UM CCI.  The revised UM adj estimate for December 2017 is up by 0.10C from the revised November estimate.

Global Temperature November 2017

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through November 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through October 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for November 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages.  Most likely the UM CCI November estimate will drop by about 0.08C once final daily averages for November are released. The UM CCI November preliminary estimate was down by 0.01C from October while the WxBELL estimate was down by 0.09C and the UAH estimate was down by 0.27C. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from six other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature (CRUT), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through October 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 December 5

Final November 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from RSS and ERAI adj have been added to the graph.  The RSS decline of 0.26C from October to November was close to the UAH decline.

Global Temperature October 2017

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through October 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through September 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for October 2017 is based on final daily averages for October 1-15 and preliminary daily averages for October 16-31. The UM CCI October estimate was up by 0.16C from September while the WxBELL estimate was up by 0.11C.  Most likely the UM CCI October estimate will drop by about 0.05C once final daily averages for October 16-31 are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through September 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 November 5

Final October 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from UAH, RSS, and ERAI adj have been added to the graph, and the UM adj estimate has been revised based on final daily estimates for the entire month of October.  The revised UM adj estimate for October now shows an increase of 0.11C from September.

Global Temperature September 2017

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through September 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June through August 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for September 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released. The UM CCI September estimate showed a small rise from August while the WxBELL estimate showed a small drop.  Most likely the UM CCI September estimate will show a small drop similar to WxBELL once final daily averages for September are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through August 2017 except CRUT4 which is final through July 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Global Temperature August 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through August 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed small increases from July to August in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for June and July 2017 are based on final daily averages and the estimate for August 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released. Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through July 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 September 6

Final August 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from UAH, RSS, and ERAI adj have been added to the graph.

Global Temperature July 2017 Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through July 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below, along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  All three of these estimates showed small increases from June to July in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimate for June 2017 is based on final daily averages and the estimate for July 2017 is based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all final through June 2017. All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

Update 2017 August 7

Final July 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates from RSS and ERAI adj have been added to the graph and the UM CCI July estimate has been updated based on final daily estimates.