Comments

Since the “Daily Updates”, “Monthly Trends”, “ENSO”, and “Paleo Climate” pages are not open for comments, I have added this page for comments and discussions regarding those pages as well as for general blog-related comments and discussion.

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7 responses to “Comments

  1. Your daily updates chart is remarkably the same as Ryan Maue’s chart he plots from the NCEP CFSR / CFSv2 data generated every 4 hours to feed the GFS / ECMWF and other weather models (WeatherBell – paywalled). I always thought this was the best to use since it can’t be homogenized or the weather models will be worse then they currently are.

    Good work.

  2. Ren, thanks, and yes the graphs I prepare from daily GFS/CFSR data posted by UM CCI are very similar to those compiled independently by Ryan Maue for WxBELL. I check the WxBELL graphs every day to make sure the UM CCI data are consistent. I agree that the reanalysis approach is probably the best for estimating regional and global surface temperatures and anomalies, although I am not certain the current methods are optimal. I especially like that it is available in near real-time to monitor global weather pattern changes.

  3. This is the first time I’ve seen these charts. Do you know why the differ from the anomaly charts I often see i.e. , GISS, HADCUT, UAH, RSS. For example the 1998 spike isn’t as prominent.

    • Tony, the CFSR estimates are based on the same weather data used to initialize the global weather forecast models four times every day, which is a lot more data with much better spatial coverage than what goes into the GHCN-based estimates like those from GISS, NCEI, and HadCRUT. The CFSR estimates have actually compared better with the UAH and RSS satellite derived TLT estimates than the GHCN-based estimates.

  4. It’s too bad the daily graphs on UM CCI GFS/CFSR with actual values over the 1981-2010 period have been discontinued. I liked them better than the graphs with values rounded to the nearest decimal value and 1979-2000 baseline. Easier to get a feeling of how temp is evolving.
    Congrats for your fine site, and thank you for making the info available.

    • Javier, UM CCI recently began reporting the daily GFS-based global and zonal temperature anomaly estimates in tenths rather than hundredths as previously reported, beginning 2017 November 30. Consequently, the graphs I present here based on the UM CCI daily estimates must also be presented in tenths. For consistency and simplicity I also converted the older data to tenths and I am now presenting the data with the same 1979-2000 reference period used by UM CCI. To shift to the 1981-2010 reference period, the annual offset is -0.12C and monthly offsets range from -0.09C for June-August to -0.16C for November.

      In reality, these GFS-based estimates are probably not accurate to even a tenth of a degree Celsius at best, so effectively some of the random “noise” has been eliminated. However, I have to admit I like to see the hundredths detail as well, but I am not willing at present to commit the much greater time expenditure to go and get the GFS and CFSR output from NCEP and prepare my own analyses. WxBELL used to have time series graphs of the daily CFSR global estimates on their public model output web page, but since Ryan Maue left, they have removed them (although they still are providing a month-to-date global map).

      • Thank you for your answer. Of course it doesn’t make sense that you put extra time to change the display.

        Perhaps it is just me, but I am under the impression that whenever the data stops going the alarming way, displays are changed or discontinued so no fair comparison can be done. I have seen this happening with Arctic sea ice age, that they first changed the display and then stopped reporting altogether, and with the length of the Arctic melt season, once it stopped growing and started to shrink. I guess it gives them the chills to think about skeptics using their own graphs against them.

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