Daily global temperature anomaly estimates from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) output based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) initialization measurements four times each day are provided daily by the University of Maine (UM) Climate Change Institute (CCI). These estimates are graphed below and should be updated on most days by 1200 UTC.
The UM CCI GFS-based preliminary global temperature anomaly estimate for March was about 0.06C lower than the CFSR estimate reported by WeatherBELL. In the two graphs below where the reference period is labeled 1981-2010, the daily UM CCI CFSR global temperature anomaly estimates have been adjusted on a monthly basis to approximate a shift in the reference period from the non-standard 1979-2000 used by UM CCI to the most recent standard climatological reference period of 1981-2010 based on monthly averages for those periods. The monthly reference period adjustments range from -0.09C for June through August to -0.16C for November and average -0.12C for the year.
On 2017 April 27 the UM-CCI GFS-based estimate of the daily global surface temperature anomaly at +0.05C reached its lowest point since 2015 July 11 when it was 0.00C. In 2015 the lowest point was -0.07C on July 9. In 2014 the lowest point was -0.28C on February 7.
The next two graphs show daily zonal temperature anomalies, where “NH” is Northern Hemisphere (0-90N) and “SH” is Southern Hemisphere (0-90S). The Tropics zone (30N-30S) covers about 50 percent of the global surface area centered on the equator, whereas the NH and SH each cover 50 percent of the global surface and average together to equal the Global average. The Tropics zone overlaps both NH and SH but covers the same amount of surface area as each hemisphere. The Arctic (60N-90N) and Antarctic (60S-90S) zones each only cover about 7 percent of the global surface area but sometimes excerpt a greater influence because of very large temperature anomalies compared to other zones. The next two graphs use the UM CCI 1979-2000 reference period with final daily estimates through December 31 and UM CCI preliminary daily estimates beginning January 1.
In February 2017, the Arctic zone daily temperature anomaly reached its lowest point since 2013 March 4 and the Tropics zone daily temperature anomaly dropped to its lowest point since 2015 April 16.
The graph below provides a closer look at the NH and SH temperature anomaly trends this year so far and includes Global and Tropics as well for comparison.
Notice that since September 2016, the Tropics zone temperature anomaly continued a declining trend since the peak of the El Niño in February 2016, but the Global temperature anomaly separated and trended slightly upward overall. Most solar energy enters the Earth system through the Tropics zone and therefore the Global temperature anomaly may drop down to a closer match with the Tropics zone in coming months as excess atmospheric heat is dissipated and appears to be doing so in April 2017.
For a sneak preview of how the global and hemispheric temperature anomalies are likely to trend over the next week, see the link below:
The daily global temperature anomaly estimates from CFSR output provided by UM CCI since 2014 are graphed below for a longer perspective.
For longer time perspectives, see the Monthly Trends page, accessible in the menu bar at the top of this page.
The latest UM CCI GFS based current weather maps can be seen here:
Today’s Weather Maps
GFS/CFSR Data Source: UM CCI Climate Reanalyzer
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