Daily global temperature anomaly estimates from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) output based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) initialization measurements four times each day are provided daily by the University of Maine (UM) Climate Change Institute (CCI). These estimates are graphed below and should be updated on most days by 1200 UTC.
The UM CCI GFS-based preliminary global temperature anomaly estimate for February was about 0.06C lower than the CFSR estimate reported by WeatherBELL and that difference has continued into March. In the two graphs below where the reference period is labeled 1981-2010, the daily UM CCI CFSR global temperature anomaly estimates have been adjusted on a monthly basis to approximate a shift in the reference period from the non-standard 1979-2000 used by UM CCI to the most recent standard climatological reference period of 1981-2010 based on monthly averages for those periods. The monthly reference period adjustments range from -0.09C for June through August to -0.16C for November and average -0.12C for the year.
The next two graphs show daily zonal temperature anomalies, where “NH” is Northern Hemisphere (0-90N) and “SH” is Southern Hemisphere (0-90S). The Tropics zone (30N-30S) covers about 50 percent of the global surface area centered on the equator, whereas the NH and SH each cover 50 percent of the global surface and average together to equal the Global average. The Tropics zone overlaps both NH and SH but covers the same amount of surface area as each hemisphere. The Arctic (60N-90N) and Antarctic (60S-90S) zones each only cover about 7 percent of the global surface area but sometimes excerpt a greater influence because of very large temperature anomalies compared to other zones. The next two graphs use the UM CCI 1979-2000 reference period with final daily estimates through December 31 and UM CCI preliminary daily estimates beginning January 1.
Much of the high spiking in global temperatures in early 2016 was caused by surges of air not quite as cold as normal into the Arctic as can be seen by comparing the two graphs below. In mid-June, an intense cold spell in the Antarctic zone pulled down the SH and global average temperatures. In mid-July, a sharp upward spike in the Antarctic zone helped to raise the SH temperature anomaly higher than the NH for the first time this year. In February 2017, the preliminary Arctic zone temperature anomaly reached its lowest point since 2013 March 4 and the preliminary Tropics zone temperature anomaly dropped to its lowest point since 2015 April 16.
The graph below provides a closer look at the NH and SH temperature anomaly trends this year so far and includes Global and Tropics as well for comparison.
Notice that since September 2016, the Tropics zone temperature anomaly has continued a declining trend since the peak of the El Niño in February 2016, but the Global temperature anomaly has separated and trended slightly upward overall. Most solar energy enters the Earth system through the Tropics zone and therefore the Global temperature anomaly may drop down to a closer match with the Tropics zone in coming months as excess atmospheric heat is dissipated.
For a sneak preview of how the global and hemispheric temperature anomalies are likely to trend over the next week, see the link below:
The daily global temperature anomaly estimates from CFSR output provided by UM CCI since 2014 are graphed below for a longer perspective.
For longer time perspectives, see the Monthly Trends page, accessible in the menu bar at the top of this page.
The latest UM CCI GFS based current weather maps can be seen here:
Today’s Weather Maps
GFS/CFSR Data Source: UM CCI Climate Reanalyzer
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