Daily global temperature anomaly estimates from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) output based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) initialization measurements four times each day are provided daily by the University of Maine (UM) Climate Change Institute (CCI). These estimates are graphed below and should be updated on most days by 1200 UTC. The graphs display final UM CCI CFSR daily estimates through 2017 January 31, with preliminary UM CCI GFS-based daily estimates beginning 2017 February 1.
When shifted to the same 1981-2010 baseline, the UM CCI GFS-based preliminary daily global temperature anomaly estimate for August so far is about 0.05C higher than the CFSR August-to-date estimate reported by WeatherBELL. In the two graphs below where the reference period is labeled 1981-2010, the daily UM CCI CFSR global temperature anomaly estimates have been shifted on a monthly basis to approximate a shift in the reference period from the non-standard 1979-2000 used by UM CCI to the most recent standard climatological reference period of 1981-2010 based on monthly averages for those periods. The monthly reference period baseline shifts range from -0.09C for June through August to -0.16C for November and average -0.12C for the year.
The next two graphs use the UM CCI 1979-2000 reference period and show daily zonal temperature anomalies, where “NH” is Northern Hemisphere (0-90N) and “SH” is Southern Hemisphere (0-90S). The Tropics zone (30N-30S) covers about 50 percent of the global surface area centered on the equator, whereas the NH and SH each cover 50 percent of the global surface and average together to equal the Global average. The Tropics zone overlaps both NH and SH but covers the same amount of surface area as each hemisphere. The Arctic (60N-90N) and Antarctic (60S-90S) zones each cover only about 7 percent of the global surface area but sometimes excerpt a much greater influence because of very large temperature anomalies compared to other zones.
The graph below provides a closer look at the NH and SH temperature anomaly trends this year so far and includes Global and Tropics as well for comparison.
For a sneak preview of how the global and hemispheric temperature anomalies are likely to trend over the next week, see the link below:
The daily global temperature anomaly estimates from CFSR output provided by UM CCI since 2014 are graphed below for a longer perspective.
For longer time periods, see the Monthly Trends page, accessible in the menu bar at the top of this page.
The latest UM CCI GFS based current weather maps can be seen here:
Today’s Weather Maps
GFS/CFSR Data Source: UM CCI Climate Reanalyzer
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