ENSO is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.  The graph below shows running 12-month changes in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global temperature estimates, along with monthly Multivariate ENSO Index Verson 2 (MEI V2) and Mauna Loa Apparent Solar Transmission (MLAST) provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  The strongest El Niño events are noted with “EN” and typically correspond to global temperature estimates that are significantly higher than 12 months previous.  The strongest La Niña events are labeled “LN”, as well as the two major stratospheric aerosol impacting volcanic events El Chichón and Pinatubo, and these events are typically associated with global temperatures that are significantly lower than 12 months previous.  From October 2015 through April 2016, the 12-month changes was among the highest over the period of record beginning 1979, which is typical for a strong El Niño event.

S1 CFSR GTA MC12 ENSO AST 1979-2021-04

Updated through 2021 June (click to enlarge)

A similar pattern can be seen in comparing the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) Temperature for the Lower Troposphere (TLT) change over 12 months versus the MEI as shown below (12-month change for the UAH TLT is the current month minus the same month a year ago).

S2 UAH TLT MC12 ENSO AST 1979-2021-05

Updated through 2021 June (click to enlarge)

Below are the latest comparisons of the 2015-2016 El Niño with the Great El Niño of 1997-1998.  These graphs are updated monthly as soon as the latest monthly MEI estimate is released by NOAA.  The graph below shows a times series of the monthly MEI values published by NOAA referenced to months beginning January 1997 for the 1997-1998 El Niño and beginning January 2015 for the most recent 2015-2016 El Niño.  The MEI values are for a 2-month period ending with the month shown in the graph.

S3 ENSO 1997-99 2015-17 Comparison 2021-05

Updated through 2021 June (click to enlarge)

The graph below shows the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) monthly estimate of global temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere (TLT) for both El Niños referenced to the same time frame as the ENSO graph above.

S4 UAH TLT 1997-99 2015-17 Comparison 2021-05

Updated through 2021 June (click to enlarge)

Below is the latest analysis of global sea surface temperature anomalies from the Tropical Tidbits Ocean Analysis web page where additional current ocean and weather data are available, as well as weather model forecasts.

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