Global Temperature 2017 February Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through February 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below.  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (UM adj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  Both of these estimates showed increases from January to February in 2017.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August 2016 through January 2017 are based on final daily averages and for February 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary monthly estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.

figure-1-global-temp-anom-2014-2017-feb-prel

Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from seven other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAI adj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through January 2017, except for CRUT4 which is final through December 2016.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

The graph above shows that the various global temperature estimates converged in early 2016 and then diverged considerably later in 2016 and have remained divergent in early 2017.  The convergence seems to be associated with the strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2016.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the remainder of 2017.

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