Global Temperature 2017 January Preliminary

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) monthly global surface temperature anomaly estimates for 2014 through January 2017 from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute (UM CCI) and from WeatherBELL (WxBELL) are graphed below along with monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for the lower troposphere derived from satellite measurements provided by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).  The UM CCI CFSR estimates have been adjusted (CFSRadj), while the WxBELL CFSR estimates have been left unadjusted to show the difference.  All three of these estimates showed slight increases from December to January.  The UM CCI CFSR adjusted monthly estimates for August through December 2016 are based on final daily averages and for January 2017 are based on preliminary daily averages, and thus these preliminary estimates may change slightly when the final monthly estimates are released.  Click on the graph below to see a larger copy.


Also shown for comparison are monthly global temperature anomaly estimates from six other major sources, including lower tropospheric estimates from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and surface estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim adjusted (ERAIadj), US National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature version 4 (CRUT4), and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), all  final through December 2016.  All estimates have been shifted to the latest climatological reference period 1981-2010.

The graph above shows that the various global temperature estimates converged in early 2016 and then diverged considerably later in 2016.  The convergence seems to be associated with the strong El Niño event that peaked in early 2016.  It will be interesting to see what happens in 2017.

See the Monthly Trends page and the Daily Update page for the latest graphs of the latest monthly and daily trends for the UM CCI CFSR estimates (access from the menu at the top of this page).

Update 2017 February 6

Final January 2017 global temperature anomaly estimates for WxBELL, RSS, and ERAIadj have been added to the graph.

Update 2017 February 9

The graph has been updated to show the UM CCI January 2017 monthly estimate based on final daily estimates for January released today.


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